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2010 Real Estate Market Mortgage Jobs
In the case of the homebuilding industry, that adjustment could take until mid-2013, when the National Association of Home Builders expects production and employment to return to something resembling normal.
"In housing, we 're going through an abnormal cycle," says David Crowe, chief economist at the trade group. "We started losing jobs almost two years before the rest of the economy, in late '05, early '06. We usually go in first, but come out first. That's not going to happen this time. We're expecting weak job growth in general in 2010."
The industry has already lost about a third of the 3.5 million jobs it had during the peak employment period of early 2006. Employment in other parts of the housing/real estate industry shows a similar boom to bust pattern.
The number of members in the National Association of Realtors almost doubled during the 1998-2007 period, hitting 1.35 million in 2006. It's down 22 percent since then. The NAR isn't expecting existing home sales to return to their 2006 peak of 6.5 million units anytime soon. By 2011, they are forecast to hit 5.7 million.
Mortgage industry jobs doubled between the end of the last recession and early 2006 to 504,500, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. By October of 2009, about half had been lost.
"People saying 'When are we going to get back to normal?' Tell me what's normal?" says Jay Brinkman, chief economist and EVP at the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Look at what drove the growth in past years. Easy credit, low interest rates, a low-risk premium, a combination of refinance, cash-out financing."
Brinkman says employment levels will reflect that, as refinancing demand falls and borrowing criteria remain tough, and the lending market returns to more of a buyer-driven one. For one, there will be fewer mortgage brokers.
The housing correction will be felt far and wide.
"All of its attendant and ancillary production-appliances, carpeting, furniture-is not going to add to what is typical in a recovery," says Crowe. Sales levels in some of those areas are at ten-year lows.
Ahorre January 8, 2010 02:21 PM | New Fairfield Connecticut